Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts

Sunday, August 24, 2014

The debate about whether to hire an active fund manager to beat the market or use a passive index fund is over

Writing in Saturday’s WSJ column “The Intelligent Investor,” Jason Zweig reviews a recent article by the “dean of the investment-management industry” Charles Ellis, who claims in the July/August issue of the Financial Analysts Journal that the “active vs. passive investment debate” is largely over. After their high trading fees and expenses, “active managers are no longer able to earn their keep,” and therefore most investors will get higher returns and pay lower fees with index funds. Ellis expects that the triumph of index investing over active fund management is generating a “wave of creative destruction” that will put many portfolio managers out of business.
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Monday, March 18, 2013

Yes, MF Global was the Direct Antecedent to Cyprus

Word is that the initial plan was for a 40% (!!!!) levy confiscation of Cypriot bank accounts. They settled for a MERE 6.75% and 9.9% dual-layered compromise.
Finance: The Cypriot Confiscation is Terrifying
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - March 16, AD 2013 9:27 PM MST

Yes, MF Global was the Direct Antecedent to Cyprus
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - March 17, AD 2013 2:06 PM MST
Cyprus is MF Global on a national, retail banking scale. Corzine absolutely blazed this trail. The particulars are almost exactly the same. Both MF Global/Corzine and Cyprus were failing entities, both took massive, uber-leveraged risks on European sovereign debt, both swept sacrosanct customer money when the house of cards finally collapsed under the weight of its own math.

The indefensible zeroes and ones were instantly swept from the computer servers and customers were locked-out of their accounts.

Interestingly, both were goaded on and enabled by the same people. Corzine was a crony of the Obama regime, which is operationally a Chicago-based phenomenon, as are the regulators of the futures industry, along with the CME group itself.

Cyprus was goaded, overseen, and then "harvested" by the International Monetary Fund, which is chaired by Christine Legarde, who is a Chicago player, and who actually was a partner at Baker & McKenzie before being placed at the IMF by the Obama regime and bankster oligarchy. Cyprus was Christine Legarde's play, and Legarde is in the Chicago oligarch circle.

This will happen here. It already has with MF Global, Cyprus is testing the national, retail banking level, and then it will happen here. They might go straight to bank holidays here, as Warren Pollock has been talking about for over 18 months now, or they may do a levy confiscation like this on retirement accounts.

If you have any money exposed to the financial system, you're just stupid. That's it. Bottom line.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

10 reasons why this 228-point slump in the Dow makes me sit up and take notice

On Thursday, the day before the Japanese earthquake, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its biggest drop since August. Markets tumbled while fears surged -- about jobs, Spain and Saudi Arabia.

But what does this mean for you, the investor?

Was this just a one-day wonder, a buying opportunity, a small but passing cloud on an otherwise sunny horizon? Or was it something more ominous?
The Dow's Plunge: Should You Be Worried?

Saturday, May 23, 2009

An Easily Understandable Explanation of Derivative Markets

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit.

By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics
as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets. Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics.

Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since, Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the various BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the Government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers.

Now, do you understand?

Friday, March 06, 2009

‘Obama Bear Market’ Punishes Investors as Dow Slumps (Update2)

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama now has the distinction of presiding over his own bear market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 20 percent since Inauguration Day, the fastest drop under a newly elected president in at least 90 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge has lost 53 percent from its October 2007 record of 14,164.53, slipping 4.1 percent to 6,594.44 yesterday.

More than $1.6 trillion has been erased from U.S. equities since Jan. 20 as mounting bank losses and rising unemployment convinced investors the recession is getting worse. The president is in danger of breaking a pattern in which the Dow rallied 9.8 percent on average in the 12 months after a Democrat captured the White House, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“People thought there would be a brief Obama rally, and that hasn’t happened,” said Uri Landesman, who oversees about $2.5 billion at ING Groep NV’s asset management unit in New York. “It speaks to the carnage that’s in the economy and the lack of confidence in the measures that have been announced.”

A bear market is defined as a decline of 20 percent or more.
IMPORTANT: READ THE WHOLE THING!

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Social Security – The Biggest Con Job in History

Our Social Security system is really a safety net, not a retirement plan. When you put money away for retirement you invest in, and build, a nest egg – assets you can spend in retirement. After handing over 15.3% of their working life income in the form of payroll taxes to the government there is no nest egg waiting for Americans at retirement. Instead the government sends you a paltry monthly check only large enough for many to avoid starvation.


Politicians call Social Security a retirement plan to fool the people into believing the all-giving, all-knowing, all-powerful government has got their back when they retire. In reality, the government and their “common good” politicians have been stabbing Americans in the back for over 70 years. They justify their con with the sound bite that 50% of the people would fall below the poverty line without their Social Security check, After investigating the truth this article reveals that line should make you ill.


The “con” is what you could have done with the 15.3% of your lifetime income if you didn’t have to pay it to the government. This year the government’s payroll tax collections will be over $1.3 trillion or $7,650 for each of America’s 170 million households. That means the average household must earn just shy of $50,000 per year.


Now what could this household do with the annual $7,650 it pays to the government to prepare for retirement. If it had invested that amount on a weekly basis for 40 years or 2,080 weeks into indexed stocks (funds with 500 or more different stocks in them) it would have compounded into a nest egg of $9,878,000 at the average rate of return for the S&P 500 stock index for the last 30 years or 12.8%. That rate is just about half of the 25% return on investment that Warren Buffet, the multi-billionaire investor, has made on his investments over the last 30 years.


Now if the taxpayer just earned 10% in the first year of his retirement – his 41st year – he would get a $82,000 monthly retirement check just off the income from that nest egg. His yearly income would be $987,800 or nearly 50 times his last annual salary. Now the 12.8% includes a price inflation factor of 3% but doesn’t include a wage inflation factor in the computation. A lower rate of return will generate a smaller nest egg - even a 4% real growth rate and 3% inflation rate or a 7% combined rate generates in 40 years a $1,700,000 nest egg. and a $14,000 a month retirement check.


The proof of the con can be understood in the recent study of the net worth of the average non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white. The average black has a net worth of $11,800 and the average white $118,000. What is really important is not the discrepancy between black and white but the enormous difference between these amounts and the millions they would have accumulated if they had “personal investment accounts” for the last 40 years. Roughly speaking Americans would have over $500 trillion in stocks and bonds instead of the $23 trillion households presently hold. If one concentrates on just reforming or replacing Social Security – you miss the bigger picture of wealth creation altogether.


Personal investment accounts will not only make the poor and middle-class rich it will vault the American economy to new levels. Annually diverting payroll taxes of $1.3 trillion into each taxpayer’s personal account and immediately investing such amounts in the capital markets (stocks and bond funds) will explode the growth of the American economy – explode it geometrically. As the nest egg can be willed to their kids succeeding generations will be wealthier and further explode the growth of the economy by the investment of those inherited funds in the capital markets.


Personal account legislation has ancillary benefits. It cuts the American budget in half as mandated entitlements are extinguished along with their many unfunded liabilities. As the payroll taxes are eliminated, the tax cut will be the biggest in the history of the planet. As this plan we call “Rise Up America” really delivers the “common good” utilizing free market principles capitalism will relegate socialism to the dustbin of history. By having one personal account for every person, millions of other retirement plans can be scrapped, played out or merged into a person’s personal account.


Business has incurred substantial retirement costs with which foreign manufacturers aren’t saddled. They say a new American car has as much as $2,200 of costs associated with retirement plan costs for older workers. Personal accounts will eliminate the need for business to incur and be saddled with these costs thereby improving their competitive position in the market.


There are so many benefits we can’t list them all here. For blacks personal accounts will act as a substitute for reparations. Women can stay home, rear the kids, never work a day in their life and retire a millionaire by means of automatically accumulating 50% of her husband’s personal account in her own personal account – the ultimate solution to increasing the birth rate, solving our demographic problems and increasing the supply of labor domestically. For a list of other benefits read the Mission Statement on the www.riseupamerica.us website. There are numerous tables there proving the compounding effect of nest egg accumulations.


Some will say that we can’t afford the cost to transition to personal accounts. We say that we can do it off-budget for 6% of what it has cost us to lower interest rates to revive the economy. Actually America is so wealthy it is embarrassing. We have a country worth $400 trillion and a debt to all foreigners of only $2.3 trillion. We can transition to personal accounts out of petty cash and have the government guarantee existing and all future retirees that their monthly checks will never be less than what is promised to them today by existing entitlement programs including Social Security, Disability and Medicare. The potential $83 trillion of unfunded liabilities we hear so much about we owe to ourselves so they are a wash on America’s balance sheet as are 77% of our national debt of $9 trillion which we owe to ourselves. Remember this is a government of, by and for the people.


We manufacture as well as consume almost 30% of the world’s goods and services with only 4.5% of the world’s population. We have built 4 million miles of interstate highway and 350,000 bridges and overpasses on $3 a barrel Saudi crude that would cost $150 trillion to replace today at $100 a barrel. America is so far ahead of the game it may take centuries for the third world’s large populations to catch us –if ever.


Yet we are running on one cylinder as the comparison of what our individual net worth is now to what it can become. Taxing the poor and middle-class with punitive payroll taxes is a major mistake made by America’s political leaders. It is best to get off the tax the poor and middle-class train right now and transition to personal accounts. See www.ownershipsocietyinstitute.com. It should be the people’s rallying cry in electing Congress and a President in 2008.


Dick McDonald
www.riseupamerica.us
12/3/07

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Wanted: Book Publisher

I know someone who actually CAN provide the solutions presented below and he has a completed manuscript to prove it (along with a VERY distinguished background). There's no doubt he will find a publisher for this just-completed manuscript, but if you are (or know someone) who is interested in publishing his book, you'll be at the head of the line--just leave a comment below.

  • Make the poor rich

  • Deliver the American Dream to even those that can’t compete

  • Honor the capitalist system by using it to solve these many problems

  • Create Personal Accounts for everyone

  • Provide retirement checks that allow retirees to live affluently

  • Force a 15% Savings on citizens at no new cost to them

  • Create wealth by compounding

  • Reduce the National budget by one-half

  • Eliminate $65 Trillion of potential entitlement liabilities

  • Deliver the biggest tax cut in history

  • Give the disadvantaged a reason to live and care about their life

  • Reduce crime, victimization, and dependence on government

  • Reduce stress caused by crime and financial difficulties

  • Eliminate the need of the private sector to finance retirement

  • Make business more competitive by eliminating costs their competitors don’t have

  • Eliminate the union’s need to bargain for retirement funding

  • Solve State and municipal pension concerns and unfunded obligations

  • Energize the economy with an immense injection of capital

  • Teach 50% of Americans about capitalism and stock investing

  • Infect America with the optimism this plan can effect

  • Reduce ethnic and racial tensions by making everyone wealthy

  • An air-tight way to eventually deliver the American dream to everyone

  • Bring back the market to areas convoluted by government intervention

  • Make America the shining light it once was before this dissonance surfaced

  • Get everyone on the same page pulling in the same direction

  • Infect the population with a desire to win and increase stock values

  • Restore America’s confidence in her politicians