Friday, June 12, 2020

Famous war correspondent lays out Chaz strategy compared to Taliban in Iraq

USA and Europe: New Taliban Continue to Attack History:
Meanwhile in Seattle, etc., how long before IEDs appear in the Kill Box?
The Seattle Taliban will soon learn a lesson with their Chaz: Never seize terrain when you are not ready to keep it. Al Qaeda used to do this in Iraq. Often, at first, locals welcomed them or at least had little means to resist.
After some time, AQ would transition from smiles to rape and beheadings and the people would be for US forces to come kill AQ. Locals got especially pissed when AQ would steal cigarettes or force people to stop smoking.
AQ also had the habit of recruiting teenaged boys and arming them -- this led to many atrocities, and in the process, or later, to many dead boys.
Anyway, we would oblige and attack AQ strong points and if they resisted we happily killed them. Often captured, or they ran away. In any case, the illusion that they had seized land met the truth of broadsword.
Another big problem with seizing territory is that the relative monkey-brain required to seize a patch of treetops is a totally different ballgame from keeping people safe and happy. Civil governance takes real work, real brains, and real organization.
Important: Seizing terrain away from the Seattle Taliban is child's play. They are nothing. But this is not a battle for six or seven blocks of Seattle.
The battle is for the SUPPORT base.
In an insurgency, there are three main groups -- and a few others.
1) GF is the GUERRILLA FORCE: this is the hardcore that will fly from across the USA to join battle. GF tend to be full time. Usually GF is a small percentage of the effort. Fewer than even just a few percent.
In likelihood, GF are the core monkeys who led the "seizure" of the six trees in Seattle and named it Chaz.
2) AUXILIARY: Auxiliary are local fighters. Auxiliary comes out when the fight comes to their neighborhood or within easy distance. Auxiliary does not drive from Virginia to Seattle to fight, but they will walk out their doors in Seattle, or maybe even drive across the State. Bottomline is that Auxiliary will fight, but they are not full-timers. When GF come to town, "Aux" will join. Often, Aux will fight even if there is no GF present.
In Afghanistan, we called GF Taliban "Big T." Full-timers. They normally had great shoes, attended training in places like Pakistan, and would fight in many areas. "Little T" was Aux. Little T normally were farmers.
Most of our fighting in Afghanistan was against LITTLE T. Not Big T. Most of our fighting was against local people not far from their home villages.
But when you saw the big suicide attacks, such as that which attacked the Harriers at Camp Bastion, that was BIG T. That was GF Taliban.
I described that attack here:
Big T were supported in that attack by AUX and by SUPPORT.
***FORMATION OF Widespread Auxiliary is a sign of growing insurgency
3) SUPPORT: Generally, Support do not fight unless you kick down their door. They provide funding, logistics, funding, information war including art, political cover, safe houses, intelligence, and basically the other 90% of that it takes to fight.
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This whole battle for the Six Trees of Chaz is about Support. They need to build a Support base. When GF and Aux rape, commit arson, murder, steal, they lose support and Support.
This is the tricky part. If President Trump is seen as being weak in the face of challenge, many people will automatically side with whom they think will win. If President Trump is seen as overreacting or underrating, he loses support.
My guess it that most Americans rightly intuit that they do not want a country without police. When Iraqis and Afghans fell into lawlessness, it was hell. They wanted ANYONE who would make them safe. This is largely why Taliban and associates will inherit Afghanistan, and why I started publishing in 2006 that they were winning. Taliban brought law and order even when most people hated them. They wanted something else, but Taliban was what they had to chose from on the menu.
Likewise in Iraq: often people invited in groups like AQ because locals wanted law and order, and suddenly realized they welcomed crocodiles to swim with their children.
These battles are not for physical terrain. They are for human terrain.
Remember: 99% of policing rests on voluntary compliance. If most of the local population refuses to cooperate with police, or attacks police, police will lose. Quickly. Likewise with National Guard. If locals -- AUX -- across wide swaths REALLY fight back, National Guard will be stretched out and decimated.
Our enemies are communists. There is only one good communist.
Be professional at all times. This is a battle for support from the Support. He who wins the support of the Support will win the war.
Stay within the law. Be polite. Be professional. Target only GF unless AUX joins. Any targeting of Support must be thought through such as top donors. Not the little old lady who leaves donuts for GF. Leave her alone.
BE PROFESSIONAL TO PRESS. Press will kick your ass.
Win.


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